STORM FORECAST
VALID Sat 25 Feb 06:00 - Sun 26 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 24 Feb 19:47 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Large elongated upper low is located over SW and S Europe. Peripheral vort max over Iberia is progged to phase with Atlantic southern stream vort max ... which will reach the NW Maghreb States on Saturday. Upstream ... rather intense vort max will cross the Ionian Sea and the S Balkans late in the period. At low levels ... SFC low over the central Mediterranean is in the process of filling ... with new ... weak cyclogenesis expected over the S Adriatic late in the period. Upstream ... cyclogenesis is progged ahead of Atlantic vort max ... which will merge with the weak SFC low over the NRN Iberian Peninsula. Weakly unstable subtropical air is present E and S of the large-scale upper low ... while continental polar/arctic air is sprawling across most of the rest of Europe.

DISCUSSION

...south-central Mediterranean...
Main focus for TSTM evolution will likely be the vort max that crosses the Ionian Sea during the second half of the day. Though shear profiles may be marginally supportive of severe TSTM development ... lack of focused low-level ascent suggests that severe threat should be rather sporadic. Though an isolated mesocyclone with an attendant severe weather threat cannot be discounted ... threat seesms to be too low to warrant a level-one risk.

...western Iberian Peninsula...
Air mass in the warm sector of the Iberian SFC low may be weakly unstable ... and should allow for scattered TSTMS late in the day. Model CAPE fields suggest that storms will not make it far inland ... or become elevated as soon as the system makes landfall. Though shear profiles are rather intense ... effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer should be rather weak ... also ... TSTMS should become increasingly isolated. Allover severe threat thus seems to be too low for a level one.

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